History Future Now

Data-driven analysis of the structural forces — demographic, technological, economic —
that will shape the next century.


By Tristan Fischer. A lifelong fascination with history, science, and technology led to a simple observation: the deeper you understand how the past unfolded, the more clearly you can see the future. These essays trace historical patterns and technological trajectories to work out what comes next.

Issue 15

March 2026 · 6 articles · 63 min reading time
All issues →
Part 4 · Society 4 charts Audio

What Worked: Five Thousand Years of Evidence for How Civilisations Flourish

Most political positions are argued from ideology. History Future Now's are argued from evidence. Five thousand years of civilisational data — from Sumer to Singapore — points consistently in the same…

13 min read →
Part 1 · Natural Resources 3 charts Audio

The New Oil: Why the Race for Critical Minerals Will Define the 21st Century

China banned gallium and germanium exports in 2023 and most Western policymakers had never heard of either element. The energy transition depends on minerals most people cannot name, mined in places m…

10 min read →
Part 4 · Society 3 charts Audio

The Great Divergence: Why Young Men and Women No Longer See the Same World

Young women have moved sharply more liberal across the developed world. Young men have not — or have moved more conservative. The gap is historically unprecedented. The political and demographic conse…

9 min read →
Part 1 · Natural Resources 3 charts Audio

The Atom Returns: Why the World's Most Feared Energy Source Is Its Best Hope

Microsoft signed a deal to restart Three Mile Island for AI power. France generates 70% of its electricity from nuclear at half Germany's carbon intensity. China is building 150 reactors. The atom is…

10 min read →
Part 3 · Jobs & Economy 3 charts Audio

The Debasement: Why Every Great Power That Borrowed Its Way to Greatness Borrowed Its Way to Ruin

The US spent more on interest payments than on defence in 2024 for the first time in history. Spain defaulted six times between 1557 and 1647. France's debt triggered the Revolution. The pattern is al…

11 min read →
Part 4 · Society 4 charts Audio

The Locked Gate: How the West Priced Its Children Out of Existence

The average house in England costs 7.7 times the median salary. In Seoul, a young couple saves for 18 years to buy a flat. Every city with extreme housing costs has a fertility rate below 1.5. This is…

10 min read →

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The 20 most recent articles
Part 4 · Society 3 charts Audio

The Invisible Judge: Why Guilt and Shame Societies Are Incompatible

Guilt societies are ruled by an internal judge; shame societies by the eye of the crowd. The difference shapes corruption, rule of law, and how civilisations understand each other — when they meet, th…

11 min read →
Part 4 · Society 4 charts Audio

The Price of Admission: What the Netherlands and Denmark Reveal About the True Cost of Immigration

The Netherlands and Denmark are the two best-documented case studies on the fiscal and social costs of immigration in Europe. Both are small, wealthy, high-trust welfare states with meticulous statist…

10 min read →
Part 4 · Society 4 charts Audio

What Worked: Five Thousand Years of Evidence for How Civilisations Flourish

Most political positions are argued from ideology. History Future Now's are argued from evidence. Five thousand years of civilisational data — from Sumer to Singapore — points consistently in the same…

13 min read →
Part 4 · Society 4 charts Audio

When the Servants Are Silicon: What History's Leisure Classes Reveal About the AI Age

Robots are not stealing jobs. They are replacing the unborn. When the Shadow Workforce handles survival, eight billion people become an aristocracy. Athens used that freedom to invent philosophy. Rome…

15 min read →
Part 1 · Natural Resources 3 charts Audio

The Atom Returns: Why the World's Most Feared Energy Source Is Its Best Hope

Microsoft signed a deal to restart Three Mile Island for AI power. France generates 70% of its electricity from nuclear at half Germany's carbon intensity. China is building 150 reactors. The atom is…

10 min read →
Part 3 · Jobs & Economy 3 charts Audio

The Debasement: Why Every Great Power That Borrowed Its Way to Greatness Borrowed Its Way to Ruin

The US spent more on interest payments than on defence in 2024 for the first time in history. Spain defaulted six times between 1557 and 1647. France's debt triggered the Revolution. The pattern is al…

11 min read →
Part 4 · Society 3 charts Audio

The Great Divergence: Why Young Men and Women No Longer See the Same World

Young women have moved sharply more liberal across the developed world. Young men have not — or have moved more conservative. The gap is historically unprecedented. The political and demographic conse…

9 min read →
Part 1 · Natural Resources 4 charts Audio

The Last Drop: Why Every Civilisation That Ran Out of Water Collapsed

Water is the one resource for which there is no substitute. Every major civilisation was built on water management — Mesopotamia's canals, Egypt's Nile, Rome's aqueducts. And every civilisation that l…

10 min read →
Part 4 · Society 4 charts Audio

The Locked Gate: How the West Priced Its Children Out of Existence

The average house in England costs 7.7 times the median salary. In Seoul, a young couple saves for 18 years to buy a flat. Every city with extreme housing costs has a fertility rate below 1.5. This is…

10 min read →
Part 1 · Natural Resources 3 charts Audio

The New Oil: Why the Race for Critical Minerals Will Define the 21st Century

China banned gallium and germanium exports in 2023 and most Western policymakers had never heard of either element. The energy transition depends on minerals most people cannot name, mined in places m…

10 min read →
Part 4 · Society 6 charts Audio

A Nation Transformed: Britain's Demographic Revolution, 1948–2050

Britain has undergone one of the most rapid peacetime demographic transformations in European history. It was not planned. It emerged from a sequence of policy decisions — and its long-term trajectory…

13 min read →
Part 2 · Global Balance of Power 5 charts Audio

The Great Offshoring: How the World's Factory Moved East

In a single generation, the West gave away the industrial monopoly it had held for two centuries. From the rust belts of the Midlands to the boomtowns of Guangdong, this is the story of the Great Offs…

12 min read →
Part 4 · Society 10 charts Audio

The Builders Are Dying: How the Populations That Made the Modern World Are Disappearing — And What Happens Next

Between them, European and East Asian civilisations built virtually everything that defines the modern world — the scientific method, industrial manufacturing, semiconductors, the internet, modern med…

16 min read →
Part 4 · Society 4 charts Audio

The Gates of Nations: How Every Civilisation in History Controlled Immigration — Until the West Stopped

For five thousand years, every successful civilisation tightly controlled who could enter, settle, and become a citizen. Then, in the space of a single generation, the West decided this was bigotry. T…

13 min read →
Part 3 · Jobs & Economy 5 charts Audio

The New Literacy: How AI Is Killing The Scribes And What Happens Next

For five thousand years, if you could not write, you hired a scribe. If you could not code, you hired a developer. AI has just made everyone literate in the digital scribal arts — coding, design, film…

10 min read →
Part 2 · Global Balance of Power 4 charts Audio

Europe Rearms: Why The Continent That Invented Total War Is Spending €800 Billion On Defence

In 1932, Germany spent less than 1% of GDP on its military. By 1939, that figure was 23%. The transformation took just seven years. Today, Europe is embarking on the fastest rearmament since the Cold…

18 min read →
Part 4 · Society 4 charts Audio

The Death Of The Fourth Estate: What The Collapse Of Newspapers Means For Democracy, Power, And Truth

On February 4th 2026, a Washington Post reporter in a warzone in Ukraine learned by text message that she had been laid off. Nearly half the newsroom was gone in a single day. This is not just a story…

20 min read →
Part 3 · Jobs & Economy 1 charts Audio

The Return of the State Factory: Why Nations That Forgot How To Make Things Are Remembering

In February 2026, the United States signed a trade deal with Taiwan that included $250 billion in semiconductor investment pledges. Tariffs are back. Industrial policy is back. After forty years of be…

10 min read →
Part 4 · Society 1 charts Audio

Who Guards The Guards? Bureaucracy, Empire, And The Eternal Struggle To Control The State

Elon Musk's DOGE initiative has identified $215 billion in US government savings and aims for $2 trillion. The EU's regulatory apparatus grows by thousands of pages each year. Every civilisation in hi…

10 min read →
Part 2 · Global Balance of Power 1 charts Audio

The Scramble For The Solar System: Why The Next Colonial Race Has Already Begun

SpaceX is building Starship production lines at scale. China plans a permanent lunar base by 2030. NASA's Artemis programme aims to return Americans to the Moon. India, Japan, and the UAE have all sen…

11 min read →

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The Big Picture

Who Runs the World Economy?

Western dominance was a 200-year anomaly. The world is reverting to the historical mean.

Source: Maddison Project, IMF · Read the full analysis →

75Articles
216Interactive Charts
16+Hours of Analysis
500Years of History
75Audio Articles

Press Play

Every article, narrated in full. Queue them up and listen on the go.

Data Stories

Every article backed by interactive data visualisations. Explore the numbers behind history.

Foreign-born populations tripled since 1970

The Gates of Nations: How Every Civilisation in History Controlled Immigration — Until the West Stopped →

US debt hit 124% of GDP — peacetime borrowing rivals WW2

The Debasement: Why Every Great Power That Borrowed Its Way to Greatness Borrowed Its Way to Ruin →

Ancient Egypt lasted 3,000 years. The Soviet Union lasted 69

What Worked: Five Thousand Years of Evidence for How Civilisations Flourish →

Nearly half of Soviet men aged 18-30 were killed in WW2

The Unintended Consequences of War: How the Loss of Young Men Transformed Women's Roles in Society and ushered in the Welfare State →

US federal regulations grew 18x since 1950

Who Guards The Guards? Bureaucracy, Empire, And The Eternal Struggle To Control The State →

Taiwan makes 63% of the world's advanced chips

Why China Could Invade Taiwan – And Get Away With It →

€800 billion: Europe rearming at unprecedented speed

Europe Rearms: Why The Continent That Invented Total War Is Spending €800 Billion On Defence →

US newspaper jobs down 80% since 1990

The Death Of The Fourth Estate: What The Collapse Of Newspapers Means For Democracy, Power, And Truth →

From 1 in 3 births to 1 in 15 — builder populations vanishing

The Builders Are Dying: How the Populations That Made the Modern World Are Disappearing — And What Happens Next →

No country has recovered from sub-1.5 fertility

The Great Emptying: How Collapsing Birth Rates Will Reshape Power, Politics And People →

By 2100, Africa will have 4 billion people

History Is Written By The Winners. And Europeans Are Losing. →

Robot costs falling below human labour

Robotics And Slavery →

COVID accelerated deglobalisation by a decade

The Long Term Impact of Covid 19 →

Human life expectancy: from 30 to 150 years

The 150 Year Life: How Radical Longevity Will Transform Our World →

North Africa will outnumber Southern Europe by 2030

The North African Threat And Mediterranean Reunification →

Western dominance was a 200-year anomaly

The Rise of the West Was Based on Luck. That Has Run Out. →

Solar costs fell 99% in 40 years

The renewables and battery revolution. What history teaches us about the future. →

60+ revolutions in 350 years

What Does It Take To Get Europeans To Have A Revolution? →

South Korea: 0.72 children per woman

Let's Talk About Sex: Does The Separation Of Pleasure And Procreation Mean The End Of People? →

India made 78,500 content removal requests in 2024

The Silence Of The Scribes: How Every Civilisation That Controlled Speech Collapsed →

Launch costs fell from $54,500 to $200/kg

The Scramble For The Solar System: Why The Next Colonial Race Has Already Begun →

Manufacturing fell from 30% to 11% of US GDP

The Return of the State Factory: Why Nations That Forgot How To Make Things Are Remembering →

A loaf of bread cost 3 billion Marks by 1923

Debt Jubilees And Hyperinflation – Why History Shows That This Might Be The Way Forward For Us All →

Netherlands: Lifetime Fiscal Impact per Immigrant by Origin

The Price of Admission: What the Netherlands and Denmark Reveal About the True Cost of Immigration →

White British Share of Population, England and Wales, 1961–2061

A Nation Transformed: Britain's Demographic Revolution, 1948–2050 →

Fertility Rates vs Robot Density: The Two Paths

The Robot Bargain: How AI Will Save Ageing Nations From The Immigration Trap →

The Faustian Bargain: 500 Years of Western Expansion and Retreat

Crisis: Or An Explanation On The Origins Of The Decline Of The West →

Japan's Workforce Gap: Who Does the Work When the Workers Are Gone?

When the Servants Are Silicon: What History's Leisure Classes Reveal About the AI Age →

Population with Migration Background in European Countries

What The History Of Immigration Teaches Us About Europe’s Future →

Nuclear Electricity Generation by Region (1960–2025)

The Atom Returns: Why the World's Most Feared Energy Source Is Its Best Hope →

Colonial Powers Through History

China Has Many Of The Characteristics Of An Emerging Colonial Power. How Does It Compare Historically? →

The Great Crossover: G7 vs Emerging Asia Share of Global Manufacturing

The Great Offshoring: How the World's Factory Moved East →

Hofstede Individualism Score by Country (Proxy for Guilt vs. Shame Orientation)

The Invisible Judge: Why Guilt and Shame Societies Are Incompatible →

The Gender-Ideology Gap Among 18–29 Year Olds (1999–2024)

The Great Divergence: Why Young Men and Women No Longer See the Same World →

The Arithmetic of Extinction

The Empty Cradle Bargain: Why Falling Birth Rates Are Everyone's Problem →

House Price-to-Income Ratio: Selected Countries (1970–2025)

The Locked Gate: How the West Priced Its Children Out of Existence →

Interest Rates and Asset Bubbles

Keynes And Hayek Are Both Dead, And Wrong →

Global Freshwater Withdrawal vs. Renewable Supply (1900–2050)

The Last Drop: Why Every Civilisation That Ran Out of Water Collapsed →

Global Literacy Rates Over Five Thousand Years

The New Literacy: How AI Is Killing The Scribes And What Happens Next →

Lifecycle Cost of Imported vs Domestic Products

Why Buying Cheap Imported Products Is More Expensive For Individuals And Not Just Society →

The Political Alignment Shift on Environmentalism

Green Is Not Red, But Blue: Environmentalism And The Mystery Of Right Wing Opposition →

Oil Price Volatility vs Proposed Price Floor

Establishing A Price Floor For Energy →

The True Cost of a "Cheap" Imported Product

Jobs: First, Get Rid Of Expensive Westerners. Second, Get Rid Of People Entirely →

Four Waves of British Immigration to America

Roots: A Historical Understanding Of Climate Change Denial, Creationism And Slavery – 1629-1775 →

The Paradox: Immigration Rising as Robot Capability Increases

The Paradox of Mass Migration and Robots in the Age of Automation →

Global Military Spending vs Energy Trade Value

Why Do We Need The Military? Securing Energy Supplies And Trade Routes →

Winners and Losers of the Energy Transition

Who Are The Losers In The Energy Revolution? →

UK Farm Income: Subsidy Dependence

Hinkley Point Decision Is Really About China And Brexit →

Vertical Farming vs Conventional Agriculture

Vertical Farming: The Electrical Convergence of Power, Transport and Agriculture →

European Utility Share Prices: The Collapse

Big European Electricity Utilities Are Facing An Existential Crisis. How Did This Happen And What Should They Do? →

The Food Gap: Production Capacity vs Population

Dealing With The Consequences Of Climate Change Inaction: The Impact Of Food →

Platform Technology Adoption Timelines

The Fusion of Revolutionary Technologies: Unlocking Humanity's Greatest Transformation →

China's Share of Global Mineral Processing (2024)

The New Oil: Why the Race for Critical Minerals Will Define the 21st Century →

Foreign Land Acquisitions in Africa

Why Land Deals In Africa Could Make The Great Irish Famine A Minor Event →

Sector Employment Shifts: 250 Years

Where Are All The Jobs Going? Lessons From The First Industrial Revolution. And 150 Years Of Pain. →

🌍 Part 1: Natural Resources

Energy, food, water, land — the physical foundations that every civilisation depends on.

All 14 →

⚖️ Part 2: Global Balance of Power

How nations rise, compete, and decline — from colonial empires to modern China.

All 15 →

⚙️ Part 3: Jobs & Economy

Automation, trade, debt, and the future of work in an age of intelligent machines.

All 14 →

🏛️ Part 4: Society

Democracy, religion, migration, identity — the human systems that bind us together.

All 32 →
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